If my inbox is any indication, we’ve reached the point when everyone just wants to know whether the polls will be right.
Fair enough, so in this newsletter, I’ll respond to a few of your questions about the specific risks facing pollsters today.
But first I wanted to report one rare opportunity to put our New York Times/Siena University polls to an early test: Alaska’s unusual top-four Senate primary, held in August. It’s a plausible test because the primary ballot is a lot like a general election: Everyone was eligible to vote, and candidates from all parties appeared on the same ballot, with the top four vote-getters advancing to the general election.