Not even so media-savvy a president as Donald Trump gets to write his own headlines, as he undoubtedly mutters to himself whenever he picks up a newspaper.
But a president’s power to shape events can influence the headlines, no matter how contentious his relationship with the press. Thus the headlines recently read: “Inflation has biggest drop since 2020;” “Inflation drops at fastest pace in six years;” “Core inflation drops to 2.6% in June;” “Inflation drops to 3.5% in welcome sign for mortgage rates”; “Inflation dropped 0.4% in June.”
It was such good news that Trump mentioned the latest inflation numbers in his primetime address last week, before launching into his main election integrity spiel.
These are largely the headlines of a ceasefire with Iran. The resumption of the war is likely to knock them from the front pages as inflation is rekindled.
In their place will be these headlines: “17 US service members have died in the Iran war, reflecting a conflict fought largely in the air;” “U.S. teeters on return to all-out war with Iran after more troops killed;” “US launches new Iran strikes as troop deaths raise fear of wider war;” “Iran war heats up while US weapon stocks remain depleted, risking military’s ability to fight future wars.”
Ask yourself which set of headlines is better for the White House, and which Republicans on Capitol Hill should prefer to read as they prepare to defend their narrow majorities in the November elections.
Recent socialist victories in Democratic primaries appear to be narrowing the party’s lead, with Republicans outrunning Trump’s job approval rating and possessing a real opportunity to defy history.
But Republicans cannot forever defy basic math, economics, or gravity.
It is now summertime. Public perceptions of the economy will be baked in by Labor Day, with extremely limited opportunities for improvement by Election Day after that. The public’s attitude about the Iran war may already be set, and not to Trump’s or the GOP’s benefit.
There are more important things than the midterm elections, of course, and hawks remain adamant all kinds of dangers to the global order will be averted if Trump decides to “finish the job.”
But the safety of our troops matters a great deal. Depleted stockpiles of air defense and long-range munitions will leave them exposed the longer this war goes on.
The economic cost to the American people is a worthy consideration of its own. But the fact that voters at home prioritize affordability, after half a decade of inflation, over more conflict in the Middle East will itself impose constraints on the war effort. Winning wars as a democratic republic requires either a sustainable level of public support or highly limited objectives that can be accomplished quickly, preferably both.
It increasingly appears that, in Iran, we have neither.
Trump did not use his primetime address to rally the American people on behalf of finishing the job in Iran. Instead, he focused on the upcoming elections and other, bigger enemies.
But he does understand that public opinion cannot be ignored indefinitely. “My preference has always been to take Kharg Island,” Trump told Fox & Friends last month. “I don’t know that America has the stomach for it, to be honest with you… I think they’d like to see us come home.”
Media reports suggest Trump has his own reservations on this front.
There is a reason Trump was eyeing the exits, and that reason isn’t Vice President J.D. Vance’s propensity to make hawkish voices on the internet angry.
Iran is hugging its main leverage point, the Strait of Hormuz, all the tighter. The war itself has weakened our bargaining posture compared to Barack Obama’s more than a decade ago.
The U.S. has the power to continue to degrade Iran’s military capacity, including its ability to disrupt shipping and raise energy prices. But that will take time. There is battle damage and a growing need to replenish stockpiles, increasing the risk to our troops.
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Casualties will further sap public support for the war while simultaneously making it harder for Trump to end it by realistically achievable diplomatic means, which in turn makes it likely that the conflict will continue under inauspicious circumstances.
It’s the stuff that quagmires are made of, precisely what Trump wanted to avoid.
Things can quickly get out of control. But the president still has some influence over what headlines will be written about this, tomorrow and beyond.
