RCP Podcast: 2026 Midterm Preview — House Odds, Senate Map, Did Redistricting Backfire? Key Races to Watch | Video

The show starts with big-picture framing for the 2026 midterms, where historic trends, a tiny majority, Trump’s approval rating, and the “abysmal” political environment make it very likely Democrats will take back the House majority.

RCP Average: 40.3 | Trump Approval Rating, 12 June 2026

RCP Average: Democrats +5.8 | 2026 Generic Congressional Vote

“The macro environment for the Republican Party and President Trump is pretty abysmal,” Josh Kraushaar says. “But the micro — the individual candidates running in many of these key races are giving Republicans chances in otherwise tough situations.”

“Midterm elections in particular are referenda on the party in power,” Trende says. “It’s just really hard to imagine a situation where the Republicans don’t end up netting losses in the House, flipping the chamber.”

“It’s hard to see Democrats going above 20 seats, certainly 30 seats. There are limits to what they can do, but at the end of the day, if you control 218 House seats, you control the chamber and control what gets voted on,” he added.

***

08:07 — Extremely Tough Senate Map for Democrats

The panel turns to the Senate, where a GOP-friendly map and some individual Democratic candidates could give Republicans a chance to keep the Senate.

Latest Polls: RCP Senate Election Polls 2026

RCP Senate Map: Battle for the Senate 2026 | 8 Toss Ups, Democrats 45, Republicans 47

“I have a lot of flashbacks to when I covered the Tea Party wave in 2010,” Kraushaar said. “It was a true wave election for the GOP, yet they lost at least three or four winnable Senate seats because they nominated extreme, exotic, not-ready candidates… This year, you have people who are just not ready for prime time on the Democratic side.”

***

11:44 — Inflation, Gas Prices, and the Economy

The group breaks down the reasons why Republicans are in this situation. “A majority of folks say that inflation and the economy are the number-one issue,” Bevan said.

What could the Trump administration do to turn around this situation? “Build a time machine, go back a few months, and don’t attack Iran,” Sean Trende quipped. “That’s the crazy thing about this, it’s largely self-inflicted.”

RCP Average: -26.0 | Direction of Country

Watch: Trump: I Love The Inflation, Prices Will Come Down After This War Is Over

“So much is downstream of the fact that we started this Iran war and either didn’t have a plan to end it quickly, or if we did have a plan to end it quickly, it didn’t pan out,” Trende said.

***

14:48 — Growing GOP Disapproval of the Iran War?

The panel agrees that even if a majority of Republicans support the war in Iran, and foreign policy is not the top voter concern, but the war’s economic aftereffects — especially gas prices — make the difference.

But about the 20% of Republicans who oppose the war, Tom Bevan said. “In an election year where you have to turn out your base… to have your base even divided that much, just a tiny little bit, while Democrats on the other side are 100% united, pretty much moving forward with very few exceptions, that’s a problem.”

“Gas prices are the ultimate scoreboard of the economy,” Kraushaar said. “I think Trump understands this. There is a major political headwind when it comes to the aftereffects of the Iran war, even if it’s not showing up in the polls.”

***

20:41 — Did Redistricting Backfire?

The group discusses the final result of the “Gerrymandering war” that both parties rushed to do, and some of the top House races to follow. Trende estimates that the unprecedented mid-decade redistricting may give Republicans a six- to 10-seat advantage, but that’s probably not enough to save the House majority in the current environment.

Latest Polls: 2026 House Elections

Kraushaar says some maps have gone too far, especially in Florida and Texas, and argues the redistricting push may have energized Democrats more than it helped Republicans.

“The phrase we’ll be hearing a lot more is ‘dummymander,'” Kraushaar said. “I think Republicans really messed up in focusing on drawing the lines, and I think it has hurt them by giving Democrats a lot more energy and momentum.”

***

32:50 — Platner’s Girlfriend Comes Forward

The panel begins its Senate race breakdown with Maine, where more allegations against Graham Platner have emerged.

NY Post: Graham Platner Cheated on Fiancée and Bragged About Nazi Tattoo

RCP Average: Platner +7.4 | 2026 Maine Senate – Collins vs. Platner

“I don’t think it’s moved the political needle as much as a lot of people expected,” Kraushaar said about Platner’s scandals. “He seems to enjoy shunning and giving the middle finger to people who understand what it takes to win swing voters and moderate voters.”

“Susan Collins has run in polarized environments before. She has never run in an environment where the overall story is, ‘We’re going to need a check on a Republican president,” Trende suggested. “This really is an environment like she’s never seen.”

***

37:51 — Biggest Senate Races: Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa

The group does a deep dive into the other most interesting Senate races of the year, including an impending ad blitz in Texas, a contest of MAGA turnout vs. working-class Democrats in Ohio, a barn-burner in Michigan, and whether a popular candidate for governor will have coattails in Iowa.

RCP Average: Talarico + 0.6 | 2026 Texas Senate – Paxton vs. Talarico

RCP Average: Tie | 2026 Ohio Senate Special Election – Husted vs. Brown

RCP Average: 2026 Michigan Senate

RCP Average: 2026 Iowa Senate Race

***

43:51 — Final Senate Odds

The episode ends with predictions. Sean Trende predicts a 51-49 majority for Republicans, while Kraushaar gives Republicans a 65% chance of winning the majority and jokes that John Fetterman could function as an insurance policy for Republicans.