It is clear that the US wants to conduct some kind of regime change operation in Cuba, egged on by Republican and Democratic hawks, though polling indicates it is not popular within the US, Cuba, or the international community. Figures like Marco Rubio have said that Cuba will need to open their economy up, in a nod to when the island was a completely deregulated vassal for US casino companies, ruled by a pro-US brutal dictator, Fulgencio Batista, who was deposed by the Cuban Revolution led by the Castro brothers and Che Guevara.
The US has been applying maximum pressure on Cuba and negotiating like it did in Venezuela to put a new leader compliant to US interests, perhaps even one of the Castros, reportedly.
The Trump administration says it is getting closer to a “deal” as Venezuela has stopped its partnership with Cuba and Mexico has, according to the White House, stopped sending oil shipments. However, Mexico is still sending some oil and aid, Russia is sending more, and China has also sent help. China’s sustained attacks on the Cuban campaign have brought it diplomatic capital. The narrative of a collapsing support network for Havana is wishful thinking.
Conditions on the island are dire thanks to the US blockade, in place since 1958 but increased by Trump. There are rolling blackouts lasting up to 20 hours a day. Hospitals are shutting down wings, and patients have died because respirators lost power. Food is spoiling due to lack of refrigeration, pushing child malnutrition rates to levels not seen since the 1990s. But despite the suffering, Cuba has not budged. Negotiators have said they are “not going anywhere.”
Cubans are reminded daily of what subjugation under the US’s thumb was like, and they see a live demonstration in Venezuela, where the US extracts resources with no regard for the local population. No matter how much the US pushes, Cubans may only be urged to rebel further.
There have been massive youth protests in Cuba, but notably, they rebuke the US and the blockade, throwing out the possibility of an inside coup. Progressives in the US have pushed back, and Cuba’s young population has lost more than 1 million people to emigration (10 percent of the population), which has slowed the economy and decreased the risk of an insurgency. Rich right-wing Cubans are in South Florida. An older, more ideologically-committed population remains.
The history of American interference in Cuba is long and bloody. There was the failed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961. There have been hundreds of assassination attempts against Fidel Castro. There is the ongoing blockade, codified by the Helms-Burton Act. For six decades, Washington has used OFAC to seize Cuban assets. Every tool in the regime change toolbox has been used. None have worked.
What Cuba hawks like Trump, Rubio, Ted Cruz, Maria Elvira Salazar, and Mario Diaz-Balart want is not new. All come from wealthy conservative families, with Rubio, Cruz, and Salazar being of Cuban descent, and they have a personal and ideological vendetta against socialist Cuba – many of their families held positions within the old Batista regime.
They want a throwback to the old pro-US regime that will do the bidding of American corporations and the military. The island is a strategic base for other operations. Washington wants Guantánamo not just for detention but as a staging ground for airstrikes against fishing boats in the Caribbean – strikes that are war crimes according to international law.
Cuba is an older, more resilient regime than the ones the US has successfully toppled. Cuba was the main socialist revolution that spurred anti-colonial revolts throughout Latin America, Europe, and Asia. The Cuban revolutionary government, while blockaded and sanctioned, helped socialist movements in Angola, Bolivia, Syria, Libya, Venezuela, El Salvador, Granada, Colombia, Ethiopia, Congo, Mozambique, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Nicaragua, and elsewhere.
Unlike some of these projects, Cuba’s Communist Party has a deep bench of leadership and a command economy designed to withstand siege. Their universal programs in healthcare, education, and housing have been massive improvements, though the state is deeply authoritarian. The Cuban state has gone through much worse, including the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, which wiped out 80% of its economy overnight and left Cuba vulnerable to a coup. Still, the island survived.
Currently, the Trump administration is distracted and bogged down. Washington is managing simultaneous military campaigns in Ukraine, Ecuador, Gaza, Iran, Somalia, Venezuela, and elsewhere, and has signaled it could invade Greenland and Canada. Historically, overstretched empires lose. The idea that the US could focus its full weight on Cuba alone is fantasy.
Cuba has more allies today than in the 1990s, partly due to its medical and security diplomacy. After the earthquake in Haiti, Cuban doctors took the lead when cholera broke out. During COVID, Cuba sent doctors to Italy, South Africa, and Mexico when wealthy nations restricted vaccines and the US tried to block them. That diplomatic capital buys loyalty. Russia is sending oil. China is sending food aid and investment. Canada continues to send tourists and aid. Even Gulf states, US allies, have maintained trade ties. The Cuban revolutionary state is much stronger than hawks project.
Crucially, there are no natural resources worth invading for. Cuba’s main exports are sugar, tobacco, nickel, and biotech. Its main economic sector is tourism. None of these are strategic enough to justify a war. Unlike Iraq, Iran, or Venezuela, Cuba does not possess a resource that would make American corporations lobby hard for intervention.
Finally, there is no popular right-wing opposition backed by US politicians and capital, unlike in Venezuela. In Cuba, the dissident movement is minuscule, not credible, and mostly foreign. There is no right-wing in Cuba. Even within the regime, there seems no interest in a negotiated takeover. If the Castro family – who engineered the socialist revolution in Cuba and others like it – is the Trump admin’s best shot, then they have no shot.
As things stand, the American strategy is based on a fantasy of a compliant vassal state that the Cuban people do not want. The blockade will continue to cause suffering, but it will not bring about surrender. Only diplomatic partnership and humanitarianism can bring lasting progress for the Cuban people.
Joseph Bouchard is a PhD candidate, journalist, and researcher from Québec covering security and geopolitics in Latin America. His articles have appeared in Reason, The Diplomat, The National Interest, Le Devoir, and RealClearPolitics, among others.
