“We are seeing a trend of stronger El Niños, and the one we have now is consistent with that trend,” said the lead author. “That is bad news for climate hazards and for people.”
As the flooding disaster in Tibet and Nepal demonstrates the deadly consequences of the climate emergency, experts wrote Thursday in the journal Science that fossil fuel-driven global heating has intensified the warm phase of a key pattern in the Pacific Ocean.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a warm phase, called El Niño, as well as a neutral phase and a cold one, La Niña. In June, scientists declared the start of a warm event nicknamed “Godzilla,” which helped push last month’s average global ocean surface temperature to the hottest ever recorded in July.
The current event is expected to become not only a super El Niño, but the most intense one on record—and it could contribute to 2027 possibly being the hottest year humanity has ever endured.
While ENSO is a naturally occurring phenomenon, the scientists behind the new paper studied coral skeletons from the Galápagos Islands and concluded that global warming—tied to humans continuing to burn fossil fuels—has intensified El Niño phases.
“Our findings suggest El Niño can supercharge global warming, but also global warming can supercharge El Niño—that is what we are seeing,” said lead author Julia Cole, who chairs the University of Michigan’s Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences.
The scientist also spoke with Inside Climate News, which noted that “the first documented super El Niño in 1982-83 killed about 95% of the shallow-water corals around the Galápagos Islands, right around the time Cole began her research career.”
Based on the team’s analysis, “after the El Niño in 1982, we start seeing much more variability; it’s a lot more extreme and looks like nothing in the previous 1,000 years,” Cole told The Guardian. “What surprised me was how consistent it was. There is just such a large, distinct difference between what has been happening in the last 40 years compared to preindustrial times.”
As Inside Climate News reported:
When Cole visited the islands in 1989, many of the large mapped corals that could have served as sample material were gone, wiped out by the El Niño early in the decade and then decomposed quickly by organisms in the biologically active waters. But in 2006, her team discovered fossil coral remnants, often perched as boulders near remote east-facing coastlines, tossed inland by large waves or tsunamis.
Cole said the signal of El Niños intensified by human-caused warming would have been even stronger if the study had included the most recent occurrences. All the events categorized as super El Niños have occurred since the 1980s and have triggered flooding in East Africa, led to disease outbreaks, and intensified tropical storms. This year’s El Niño is intensifying drought in Indonesia, fueling widespread fires that are sending smoke and hazardous air pollution across Southeast Asia, Cole said. Her team is currently analyzing corals to show the changes from the El Niños in 2015-16 and 2023-24, she added.
“We are seeing a trend of stronger El Niños, and the one we have now is consistent with that trend—it’s not a fluke. We are seeing a shift where El Niño doesn’t look like what it did prior to industrial times,” Cole said. “That is bad news for climate hazards and for people, particularly those who are badly impacted and yet have done little to cause climate change.”
According to the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, consequences of El Niño include “increased rainfall across the southern tier of the US and in Peru, which has caused destructive flooding, and drought in the West Pacific, sometimes associated with devastating brush fires in Australia.”
Dalhousie University marine scientist Boris Worm wasn’t involved with the new study but told The Associated Press on Thursday that “El Niño is the most violent aspect of climate variability worldwide, with effects ranging from local fisheries collapse, to widespread coral die-offs to severe droughts, and food shortages around the world.”
Experts are already worried about the latest El Niño’s impact on food security and prices, with the United Nations World Food Program projecting earlier this month that almost 50 million more people worldwide face the prospect of acute hunger.
Pointing to late climate scientist Wallace Broecker’s warning that “the climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks,” Worm said that “human emissions are the stick, and El Niño is [one] of the ‘angry’ outbursts that can be so threatening to our collective safety.”
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