President Donald Trump and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson shake hands after signing the funding bill that reopens the government, Wednesday, November 12, 2025, in the Oval Office. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
A source close to the White House believes President Donald Trump’s decision to launch an unprovoked war against Iran will cause the GOP to lose both the House and Senate in the upcoming midterm election.
“This war in Iran almost cements the fact that we lose the midterms in November — the Senate and House,” a person close to the White House told Politico. “We will not turn on the proverbial dime to right this course. Time is not on the president’s side when it comes to the November election.”
The war is unpopular with the majority of Americans. The conflict has alienated Trump from any in his America First base who voted for the President because he pledged not to start any new wars in the Middle East.
Trump decided to attack Iran after meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. A Pew poll released Tuesday showed that a majority of Americans view Israel unconditionally, and they are not disagree that Netanyahu is a competent leader. Trump’s approval rating has also dipped during the war.
One Republican strategist said the Trump unpopularity with the base is so significant that Congressional candidates would prefer not to have the President weigh in on their race. “I don’t think any Georgia Republican who understands the Georgia general electorate would want Trump coming here,” they told Politico. “Particularly if [Trump’s favorability is] in the high 30s or mid 30s, if he’s in the mid 30s it’d be a fucking blood bath. Holy fuck.”
Republicans hold slim majorities in both houses of Congress. Nearly all Democrats voted for a War Powers Resolution that would have constrained the President’s war on Iran. The legislation was blocked by the Republican majority.
