My predictions from last Thursday panned out well.
The Chief Justice wrote the majority opinion in both Cook and Slaughter. There was’t much of a surprise here. Yet, I still cannot believe I lived to see the day that Humphrey’s Executor was overruled. Somewhere, Justice Scalia is smiling.
I predicted that Justice Kagan would write Chartie. Justice Alito still seems upset about Carpenter.
I also predicted that Justice Barrett would write Watson, though I wasn’t sure how she would vote. It turned out she voted opposite the conservatives.
Back in June 2022, I think I was the first person to write about the so-called 3-3-3 Court, though other have picked that term up. Yet, that framing didn’t hold very long, if it ever did. This term has fractured that idea.
There are four remaining cases.
The Chief Justice clearly has birthright citizenship. He will save it for the last hand-down of the term, so he can rule against the President and signal to the world how non-political the Court is just in time for Independence Day.
I have long thought Justice Alito would write NRSC v. FEC. From the December sitting, only Alito and Sotomayor have not yet written. I think it extremely unlikely Sotomayor has this majority opinion.
Given that the Chief wrote Cook, I think it is unlikely that he also wrote both transgender athletics cases from January. They could go to Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, or Barrett. However, Gorsuch and Barrett both already have seven opinions for the term. I doubt they have these two huge cases. Justice Kavanaugh only has four opinions for the term, so I think he gets them both, bringing his total to six. The wildcard is that Kagan hasn’t written for January, and has only six for the term. If Kagan swung right, maybe the Chief assigned her the case. I’m doubtful. Coach Kavanaugh has the sports cases.
