Donald Trump built part of his 2024 campaign around the promise that he would put America first, arguing that his first term stood apart from those of his predecessors because “No New Wars” began on his watch. But as his administration engages in conflicts in Iran and Central America, new polling shows a reversal in the support of foreign engagement, with Democrats now less inclined than Republicans to support the U.S. taking the lead in foreign affairs.
The Reagan Institute Summer Survey, conducted among 1,254 U.S. adults from May 26-June 3, found that Republicans are now more supportive than Democrats of the U.S. taking the lead on international events. Seventy-one percent of Republicans and 76% of MAGA Republicans supported a leading U.S. role, compared with 55% of Democrats.
This marks a dramatic shift from support under the Biden administration and the previous Trump administration. In 2019, Democrats led Republicans on support for the U.S. leading in international events, 58%-48%. In 2021, both parties sat at 46%. Overall, since November 2023, roughly a year and a half after Russia invaded Ukraine and a month after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, support for U.S. engagement has increased from 42% to 61%.
On Iran, the largest current foreign engagement involving the U.S., the poll found that 54% approved of “the U.S. military actions taken against Iran this year,” while 45% disapproved. The only other poll included in the RCP Average that found net positive approval of the Iran war since the beginning of April was a Harvard-Harris poll, which found that 51% supported Trump’s handling of the war so far, while 49% opposed it. Every other poll has found opposition to the war in Iran outweighing approval, with only 37.7% approving in the latest Approval of the Military Action Against Iran RCP Average, while 58.6% opposed it.
Despite support for the action in the poll, 64% said it was important for the U.S. to finish the conflict as quickly as possible, “even if the key U.S. goals aren’t fully achieved.”
The poll was taken before the memorandum of understanding was signed. The agreement was intended to end the fighting and set several terms, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the easing of financial restrictions on Iran, and the “disposition” of Iran’s nuclear material. Since then, however, Israel and Hezbollah have continued fighting, and Iran and the United States have exchanged strikes in recent days. Multiple publications reported Sunday that the U.S. and Iran agreed to halt strikes and plan to meet Tuesday in Qatar’s capital.
Several of the points in the MOU were also supported by most Americans, the poll found. Sixty-three percent said it was important for the U.S. to try to permanently end Iran’s nuclear program, and 68% said it was important to ensure the free flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
The survey also asked about support for the U.S. sending weapons to Israel, which 50% supported and 46% opposed. That is down from two years ago, when 56% supported the U.S. sending weapons to Israel in May 2024. Other polls have found that a larger share of Americans are skeptical of the United States’ relationship with Israel, including the latest Quinnipiac poll, where 48% said the U.S. is too supportive of Israel, 38% said the level of support for Israel is about right, and only 7% said the U.S. is not supportive enough.
The Reagan Institute survey also found that 75% were concerned about China’s military buildup. A similar share, 74%, were concerned about China attempting to take over Taiwan by force.
Even larger concerns centered on China’s ability to affect Americans’ lives at home. Eighty-two percent cited concern about China’s role in the flow of fentanyl into the U.S., 81% were concerned about China’s ability to spy on Americans, and 80% were concerned about the Chinese government purchasing land in the United States.
Focusing on drug trafficking and immigration still outranked concerns about China, though. When asked what issues should be the major focus of U.S. foreign policy efforts, fighting terrorist networks topped the list, with 62% saying it should be a major focus, followed by combating drug trafficking networks at 60% and securing the border at 49%. Fewer said that countering Chinese military power, promoting freedom and democracy in authoritarian countries, and providing foreign aid should be a major concern, at 46%, 42%, and 33%, respectively.
Threats closer to home also edged out Iran’s nuclear program in public concern, with 79% prioritizing migration, drug trafficking, and organized crime in the Western Hemisphere, compared with 76% who prioritized preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Despite some voicing concerns about the effects of U.S. intervention abroad, the poll ended on a more optimistic note: 73% agreed that, since the signing of the Declaration of Independence, the U.S. has been a force for good in the world.
