Scott Corey Informed Comment
Conventional analysis of the 2026 warfare in the Middle East revolves, understandably, around standard themes: war and peace, victory or defeat, cost versus benefit, justification and crime. For the three “new model” autocrats involved, Mr. Trump, Mr. Netanyahu, and Mr. Putin, the matter is different. Operating under Carl Schmitt’s doctrine that all politics is reducible to the “friend-enemy distinction,” deadly group conflict is constant and necessary to political existence. There is no such thing as peace, though the actual body count may reach zero for varying periods of time, and the targets of hostility will evolve.
It might be satisfying to say that the autocrats and the Iranian imams (who also believe in permanent violence, but on the basis of a religious duty to export revolutionary terrorism) deserve one another. Better, though, to explore how this fighting broke out because these conflicts (Iran, Lebanon and, continuingly, Ukraine) were the best wars available to the autocrats at the moment. Understanding this will help in the future because, for the 21st Century autocrats, there is no “next time,” only more of the same.
Ostensibly, the US and Israeli attack on Iran started with a failure of toweringly ambitious peace negotiations. Two US envoys were negotiating with Iran about nuclear matters while simultaneously talking to Russia about the war in Ukraine. Neither effort was realistic. The US brought no technical staff to the nuclear talks, and leaked phone calls suggest that the envoys were completely unable to absorb the guidance provided by British experts trying to support them. As for Ukraine, the US has almost no leverage on Russia.
After promising more weapons to Kyiv in July 2025, Mr. Trump made restitution to Moscow with a festival of diplomatic gifts. Detaining hundreds of Koreans legally in the US set up a photo op for Korean dictator Kim Jong Un with Mr. Putin and China’s Xi Jinping. Massive new tariffs on India effectively stage managed the same result for Narendra Modi. Mr. Trump’s passivity as Mr. Putin reminded him that the Alaskan soil they stood on once belonged to Russia demonstrated who has the upper hand.
No matter how sincere any of the individuals involved may have been, more fundamental needs prevailed. Mr. Netanyahu’s are most obvious, and now enjoy wide publicity after several sources revealed the content of a phone call with an enraged Mr. Trump, who is reported to have said that he was keeping the Israeli out of jail. There is no remaining doubt that the destruction of Gaza and Lebanon is aimed at diverting and delaying Mr. Netanyahu’s criminal penalties, and preserving his autocratic agenda.
Mr. Trump’s position is more complex. Attacking someone was urgent after the failed domestic invasion of Minnesota. A previous effort in Los Angeles bore good political fruit, as a wave of ICE officers provoked crowds to wave Mexican flags and rage against an “invasion of our community,” seeming to prove that California was indeed in foreign hands. The logical next step was to drive more American moderates to one or the other extreme, inciting conflict large enough to pretend that elections must be cancelled in certain areas.
For this, Minnesota was perfect – a middle American state, full of white, Nordic people famous for clean, moderate politics, and led by a governor who had dared campaign against Mr. Trump. However, the propaganda campaign (targeting Somalis) was weak, ICE training and instruction as a tax funded criminal gang were leaked, house to house searches and forged warrants drew lawsuits by the state, and the federal government was publicly reduced to protecting several murderers. Retreat was the only option.
For another kind of regime, a spectacular diplomatic success with Iran might have been adequate political distraction from a domestic bungle. For a modern autocrat, Iran’s promising first move in negotiations created an emergency. The bombing had to start before the prospect of peace could grow.
Iran was the logical target for several reasons. Mr. Trump is widely known to owe a considerable political debt to Russian interference in US politics but, now that he is in power, he is struggling to free himself from Mr. Putin’s global leadership of the new autocratic wave. An attack that included Israel would nudge Mr. Netanyahu closer to Washington, a smart move considering the Prime Minister’s long friendship with Mr. Putin, and the wounded feelings inflicted when Mr. Trump coerced a pause in the destruction of Gaza. Bombing Iran was also disguised pressure on Russia. Iran is a major support for Mr. Putin’s war on Ukraine, providing many of its drones, for instance. Damaging Iranian weapons production and supply hurt its ally as well. Indeed, the otherwise strangely ambitious pre-war diplomacy with Iran and Russia was most likely meant to ensure that Moscow would read the attack on Iran as a message to the Kremlin.
Mr. Putin’s war of the moment is having trouble, but the bombing of Iran gives him improved global leadership against the US. Ukraine now intercepts about 100- of missiles. Russian casualties are said to have exceeded recruitment for five consecutive months. Military inability to protect either Venezuela or Iran makes Russia look weak in comparison to the US.
Modified view of reflecting pool with Trump algae. Apologies to Paula Nardini, original photographer: https://www.pexels.com/photo/lincoln-memorial-reflecting-pool-with-the-washington-monument-under-cloudy-sky-9152409/
Yet the Iran war works for Mr. Putin in the larger picture. First, despite the military losses, it bonds Iran even closer to Russia, and secures the Iranian regime. Mr. Trump has purged the US military, ensuring he will not get expert advice that he does not like. In all probability, no one has informed the White House that aerial bombing has never beaten a country into submission, instead reinforcing public support for the government under attack. Russian military doctrine loves heavy metal warfare even more than its American counterpart, but is free to report to the Kremlin the likely outcome of one-dimensional US warfare.
More important, the Iran war moves Russia and China closer. For decades, the US Navy has been the guarantor of free transit on global oceans, while Russia has usually had to content itself with the hope of using submarines to block trade at key choke points if outright war ever came. Recently, the US has abrogated its protective role in the waters around Venezuela, attacking boats without warning or supportable justification. Now, in response to US bombing in the Middle East, Russia’s ally Iran has duplicated US predation on the sea, and proven the viability of choke point control. Mr. Trump has, as a result, both legitimated and shown the viability of China’s tightening control in the South China Sea. Russia, China, and Iran look all the more like logical strategic partners. Mr. Putin’s recent success in bringing home more than a dozen trade deals with China contrasts with Mr. Trump’s failure to collect even the slightest notice from Beijing after a similar visit.
In sum, the Iran war is the best war available to Mr. Trump and Mr. Netanyahu, and props up the value of a struggling effort in Ukraine for Mr. Putin. If the fighting actually abates, the question will not be how long the peace can hold. The metaphorical life blood of 21st Century dictatorship is actual blood. Where next?
Scott Corey holds a PhD in Political Science from UC Berkeley, and his dissertation was on revolutions and political violence.
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