MS NOW’s Mike Brzezinski discusses a report from The Hill which suggests the resignation of Supreme Court Justice Alito might motivate Republican voters ahead of the November midterms:
The Hill reports that some in the Senate GOP are welcoming the potential retirement of conservative Justice Samuel Alito as an “October surprise” that could rally Republican-leaning voters to the polls, since President Donald Trump would select his replacement.
The Hill report says GOP senators are being careful not to prod Alito publicly, but privately hope a fall retirement announcement could shift several races in their direction.
JONATHAN LEMIRE, MSNBC: Yeah, this is really interesting because right now, by any poll, there’s a lot of enthusiasm for Democrats and very little for Republicans heading into these midterms, in the wake of higher prices, the war, and the like.
But there are Republicans who are hoping for Justice Alito—or Justice Clarence Thomas, who has also been rumored to potentially retire—as a motivating factor for Republicans to come out. Both justices have put it out there that they don’t plan to retire.
But Democrats are also talking about this. I’ve spoken to a couple in the last week or so who have said, “Wait, there’s talk that Alito and Thomas are going to stay—that’s actually a smokescreen. They’re banking on complacency, and they are going to come out and fulfill that October surprise.”
So you can do the criminology of this as to what’s real and what’s not. But what is clear is, if one of these two—if this is real—it would change the stakes this November.
JONATHAN MARTIN, POLITICO: Yeah, you and I lived through 2018—otherwise a really good election for Democrats, also Donald Trump’s first midterm.
But guess what happened in 2018? You had the Brett Kavanaugh story, and that had a huge impact on Senate races. I can think of races like Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota and Claire McCaskill. You know, Phil Bredesen, who we thought had a shot in Tennessee against Marsha Blackburn that year.
I can go on and on—races that were thought to be competitive. Democrats just collapsed, especially in red America, because of that Supreme Court story.
I’m not saying that Kavanaugh is going to be analogous to whatever happens with the possibility of Alito or Thomas stepping down, but it does present the opportunity to juice the political right at a time when they are demoralized right now. Obviously, Democrats have enthusiasm, and President Trump hasn’t given his folks a lot to come out for.
So you can see the possibility. But at the same time, as we know, it’s really hard to get these folks to step down, no matter who they are on the Court. And I think it’s still hard to see them walking away just yet.
