Vice President JD Vance has struggled to justify his shifting rhetoric on Iran. Once thought of as the standard-bearer of a right-wing, non-interventionist school of foreign policy thought, Vance has been forced to repeatedly contradict himself in an effort to sell this war to the American public.
Once the bombs started dropping, JD Vance folded on his supposed principles. While we were told that he was urging restraint behind the scenes, he was hardly seen in public for weeks following the war’s launch. Whatever his private reservations may have been, he wasn’t willing to make them known to the American people. This was the behavior not of a strong, independent voice, but of a political actor who was more concerned with staying in the good graces of Trump than he was in stopping a war that was being justified based on provable, obvious lies.
With this being said, Vance did have a surprising stretch in June where he suddenly reverted to his old foreign policy credo: “America First.” In trying to secure a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Iran and start the process of deescalation and diplomacy, Vance began to more explicitly call out the Israelis for their efforts in prolonging and expanding the conflict.
“Number one, Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time,” Vance said, “and he happens to be the head of state of the world’s superpower.” Vance, in a move rarely seen from American officials, was finally (at least rhetorically) acknowledging the immense leverage America has over Israel.
Vance continued, “over the last three months, two thirds of the defensive weapons that have protected your homeland, have been built by American hands and paid for by American tax dollars.”
It seemed as though we may have finally reached a breaking point, and that the illusion of America and Israel having shared military goals was fading. However, the MoU only lasted 18 days. Amid the renewed strikes on Iran, Vance had to engage in the humiliation ritual of explaining why his diplomatic efforts failed.
“The basic deal that we cut was we’ll lift our blockade if you stop shooting at ships. But if you shoot at ships, we’re going to punch back and we’re going to punch back harder than ever before,” Vance claimed.
Of course this is a mischaracterization of the deal, which in actuality contained many more concessions from the U.S. than it did from Iran. Conveniently, Vance chose not to mention clause one of the MoU, which explicitly stated that Israel would cease their attacks in Lebanon and leave the territory they had been occupying. This clause, which was essentially a promise from the Americans to reign in the Israelis, was not followed through on, as Israel continued their assault.
After the MoU’s collapse, a few more weeks of ineffective strikes on the Iranian coast began. Once it became apparent that the U.S. wasn’t getting any closer to a victory with these attacks, Donald Trump again returned to a more diplomatic posture. Showcasing his delusion, Trump said that Iran had started to “beg” for a deal, a statement only made to further his efforts to convince the American people that we had won and that the end of the war was near.
Negotiating from a position of increasing desperation, Trump is seeking a quick agreement to achieve the bare minimum: open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has made it clear in recent days that any deal to open Hormuz will require massive concessions from Trump, including billions of dollars in payments, a withdrawal of the U.S. military from the Middle East, and the lifting of the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports.
If these conditions end up as terms on an official agreement, that would make it even more undeniable that the U.S. was strategically defeated by Iran. This, of course, is a political nightmare for all involved, but most of all to JD Vance. As the Vice President, he owns this disaster. Unless he is willing to openly diverge from Trump, he will be forced into trying to justify one of the most consequential foreign policy blunders in modern history.
Giving mixed signals, Vance went on Fox News on Saturday to explain to the American people where things stand.
“We’ve destroyed their nuclear program, we’ve destroyed their conventional military, we’ve radically reduced what you might call their asymmetric military abilities,” Vance explained. He went on to say that if Iran wasn’t willing to make the changes necessary for them to have a better relationship with the U.S., “that’s fine too.”
“We’re really in the middle of the game here,” Vance urged, hinting at a prolonged conflict.
Obviously, this description of the state of the war is incoherent. Vance claims on the one hand that we have achieved our objectives and “destroyed” their nuclear and military capabilities, yet he simultaneously says that we are “in the middle” of the conflict.
What he is actually saying – in a slick way – is that due to our miscalculations about Iran’s ability to close the Strait of Hormuz, we are being forced into making concessions that Donald Trump isn’t yet ready to publicly accept, for the sake of not admitting defeat.
Vance would rather play defense for this administration and their wars than speak honestly with the American public. If he is forced to choose between furthering his political career and stopping a reckless war, he will choose his career.
Once you have assumed the role of Vice President of the United States, and claim all of the societal privileges that come with that, these priorities become unacceptable.
Nolan Denaro is an independent political analyst, writer, and host of “The Quest For Clarity” podcast, which can be found on YouTube and Spotify. His work has been featured on Antiwar.com, Responsible Statecraft, and Mises.org. He writes on U.S. foreign policy, economics, and current events, with a particular focus on war and imperialism. He writes opinion pieces on his Substack, and you can follow him on X @nolandenaro. Nolan can be reached for correspondence at nolansdenaro@icloud.com.
