On average, tariffs are a jobs killer. They protect one industry while costing others.
Manufacturing was dismal in 2025. 2026 is off to a weak but positive start in 2026 averaging about a thousand jobs a month.
Change In Manufacturing, Construction, Private Education and Health
Construction has had a few great months but its sporadic and tied to AI and utilities, not residential or office construction.
The big source of jobs has been private education and health care, related to the mass aging of baby boomers needing health care services.
Manufacturing and Services Jobs Percent of Nonfarm Payrolls
Manufacturing Percent of Nonfarm Payrolls
- 1943-01: Manufacturing peaks in WWII at 38.47 percent of nonfarm payrolls
- 1953-09: The Korean War peak was 32.07 percent
- 1971-08: Nixon killed gold redeemability on August 15, 1971. The manufacturing percent of jobs was 23.98 percent.
- 1994-01: NAFTA started on January 1994 with manufacturing percent of jobs at 14.97 percent.
- 2001-11: China Joined the WTO on December 11, 2001 with manufacturing percent of jobs at 14.97 percent.
- 2009-03: The Great Recession ends with manufacturing percent of jobs at 9.28 percent.
- 2026-06: Manufacturing percent of jobs is a new record low 7.92 percent.
Trump Promised to Revive Manufacturing
Donald Trump first campaigned heavily on the promise to restore American manufacturing jobs during his initial presidential run in 2016.
He reiterated these pledges during his 2024 campaign, where he vowed to make the U.S. a “manufacturing powerhouse”
Tariffs Aren’t a Cure-All for Factory Malaise
Bloomberg reports Trump’s Blue-Collar Base Worry Tariffs Aren’t a Cure-All for Factory Malaise
Trump’s biggest economic promise has always been a tariff-driven resurgence in manufacturing. And the case for that actually happening remains weak. Import taxes have contributed to higher consumer prices. Yet there are actually 38,000 fewer people working in American factories than a year ago, according to data released last week. Which explains why some of Trump’s blue-collar supporters have doubts about his methods.
In 2016 Trump offered protectionism as a solution to the economic woes of American factory towns like the one I visited last week. A decade on with a mid-term election looming some of the union members who cheered him on are having doubts about how things have played out.
USMCA Reviews
The union man I sat down with campaigned for Trump in 2024 in the belief that his tariffs would help give the shuttered factory a new life. But they didn’t. And so now he feels betrayed and not so sure about the path Trump is on.
Last week’s move doesn’t end the largely tariff-free commerce that has taken place since the North American Free Trade Agreement went into effect in the 1990s. It’s a long way from Trump’s 2016 campaign promises to kill NAFTA altogether.
We are living through a giant economic experiment while contemplating the end of global orders and the consequences. The reality, though, is that despite the certainty you often hear in Washington about this moment’s importance, many Americans aren’t convinced they are benefiting.
Which means you can sit down with a union man with proud anti-free trade credentials and be surprised. A protectionist may be in charge but that union man still isn’t sure anyone in Washington is delivering what he needs.
Trump Manufacturing Results
- January 2017: 8.47 percent
- December 2020: 8.54 percent
- January 2025: 8.01 percent
- June 2026: 7.92 percent
Net Manufacturing Jobs 2025-2026
- 2025: – 113,000
- 2026: 18,000
- Total: -95,000
Tariffs did not and will not revive manufacturing. Biden kept in place all of Trump’s tariffs. Then Trump added more tariffs.
Between January 1, 2017 and today, the US economy added 271,000 manufacturing jobs. In contrast, nonfarm payrolls rose by 13.576 million.
The demise of manufacturing is a result of increased productivity, Nixon Shock, and China.
NAFTA did not hurt manufacturing jobs. If anything, NAFTA saved jobs by making the US more competitive.
How Tariffs Hurt
There are currently 12.6 million manufacturing sector employees. But the net beneficiaries is much less.
For example, the automakers sure love tariffs on cars and trucks. But they don’t love tariffs on steel, aluminum, or imported parts needed to make cars and trucks.
Consumers don’t love any of this because prices rise and their relative standard of living declines.
The US population is about 342.6 million people. All but some percentage of 12.6 million are net losers on tariffs.
No Manufacturing Renaissance
- Looking ahead, labor productivity is going to increase, meaning fewer workers to produce more goods.
- Boomers are going to need more health services, not bigger, more expensive trucks.
- Zoomers are not going to be buying huge cars or trucks to replace falling boomer demand.
Don’t expect a big manufacturing renaissance, because it isn’t coming.
The idea that tariffs protect jobs is proven nonsense.
And the more Trump tries to bring jobs back with tariffs, the worse things will get for small businesses dependent on imports and all consumers.
Nixon Shock
For more on the role of Nixon Shock and the impact it had on trade imbalances, please see Gold and Silver Surge to New Record Highs, What’s Going On?
Tariffs cannot and will not fix problems related to Nixon ending the redeemability of gold.
Credit exploded and so did trade imbalances.
Related Posts
May 23, 2021: Trump’s Steel Tariffs Failed Miserably, Biden Should Scrap Them
The latest jobs report said manufacturing employment fell 18,000 in April. It’s 515,000 below the pre-Covid mark of February 2020. With the stroke of an auto-pen, Mr. Biden could lift the burden of 25% tariffs on steel and 10% on aluminum, helping the economy emerge from the pandemic. So what is he waiting for?
September 6, 2025: Trump’s Aluminum Tariffs Seriously Backfire Already
Tariffs did not and will not bring production back to the US.
July 1, 2026: Manufacturing ISM Up 6 Straight Months, Employment Down 33 Straight Months
Price growth moderated but have input prices have rapidly increased for 21 months.
July 6, 2026: ISM Services Prices Paid Increases 109 Straight Months, Growth Slows
The ISM services growth slows a bit. Exports and imports treading water.
June 25, 2026: PCE Year-Over-Year Inflation Up 4.1 Percent, Fed Over Target 63 Straight Months
The Fed’s target is 2.0 percent, actual is 4.1 percent, up 0.4 percent from last month.
I have been on the right side of this debate for something like forever.This post originated on MishTalk.Com
Thanks for Tuning In!
Mish
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