Image by Cassie Matias.
It’s mid-winter but a large area of West Antarctica that should be frozen solid is not frozen. What’s up?
Antarctica is the coldest spot on the planet where the average winter temperature is -34.4°C (-30°F), but it does vary by region. For example, inland locations like the South Pole average around -60°C (-76°F), while coastal areas such as the Antarctic Peninsula range between -12°C and -20°C (10°F to -4°F).
The area recently experienced a winter heatwave, but that has passed. Winter heatwaves happen on occasion, but the ice always, always, always refreezes for as long as anybody can remember. But satellite photos d/d July 12, 2026, by the University of Colorado Boulder’s Snow and Ice Data Center show a large portion of West Antarctica 150,000 square miles that’s typically frozen this time of year shockingly ice free! Something is wrong.
Scientists Identify Thin Vulnerability of West Antarctica
Of even more concern than failure of refreezing in the dead of winter, the following headline appears in Space Daily d/d June 20, 2026 and serves as a shocking backdrop to the recent news: Scientists say the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Could Collapse With Very Little Additional Warming and the Four Metres of Sea Level Rise that Would Follow Cannot be Stopped Once it Begins.
“A modelling study published in Communications Earth & Environment in June 2025 found that West Antarctic Ice Sheet could begin an irreversible collapse at ocean temperatures between zero and 0.25°C above current levels — meaning the threshold may have already been reached,” Ibid.
Still, nobody really knows for sure how soon or how far sea levels will rise, but the direction is known. It’s up!
That was then. Today, parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet don’t refreeze. Hmm.
Civilization is currently living through break-neck climate change. It’s reflected in erratic climate system behavior. The entire global system has gone bonkers, unpredictable, ecosystems threatened everywhere. As it happens, science has isolated the main culprit as too much heat; it’s excessive greenhouse gas emissions CO2 from burning fossil fuels.
CO2 has been on a rampage as oil and gas companies crank up production.
Based Upon AI Analyses, July 2026: “Carbon dioxide is the main driver of climate change. It traps heat, so the more of it in the air, the warmer the planet runs, which is why its concentration is the most closely watched number in climate science. Almost everyone has seen the chart of that number climbing since the 1950s.But the line is not just going up, it is getting steeper. The air took on more CO2 in the last decade than in any 10-year stretch since record-keeping began in 1959, and this past May the monthly average at Mauna Loa hit 432 parts per million, the highest ever measured.”
It’s hard for scientists to accept global warming so pervasive, so unexpected that it halts Antarctic refreezing in the dead of winter. No scientific models predicted this.
As a prelude, the past couple of years science did provide clues. An article in Inside Ecology d/d May 11, 2026 describes the background: Antarctic Sea Ice Defied Global Warming for Decades – Now Hidden Ocean Heat is Breaking Through, to wit: “For decades, Antarctica seemed to defy global warming. Since satellites began monitoring the poles in the late 1970s, the seasonal growth and retreat of Antarctic sea ice – frozen seawater that expands around the continent each winter – appeared remarkably resilient. It was often described as the ‘heartbeat of the planet.”
The “one-in-3.5 million” Happenstance
“Since 2015 Antarctic sea ice has declined sharply. In 2023, winter sea ice extent fell to record lows — so far below the long-term average that scientists considered it an event with roughly a one-in-3.5 million probability of occurring by chance,” Ibid.
A “one-in-3.5 million” proposition demands attention. Those odds demand analysis, a wake-up call, an omen of change, and sure enough, three years later the strangest thing happens, refreeze fails in a region of brutally cold West Antarctica.
There are other omens, e.g., Hektoria Glacier (Antarctica) retreated 8 kilometers (5 miles) in only two months; one-half of the structure collapsing in record time. This is the fastest glacier collapse ever, and the message to the world is very clear: Global Warming looks like it’s ahead of schedule. (Antarctica Just Saw the Fastest Glacier Collapse Ever Recorded, ScienceDaily d/d February 26, 2026)
Another early warning signal: “Researchers have discovered dozens of new methane seeps littering the ocean floor in the Ross Sea coastal region of Antarctica, raising concerns of an unknown positive climate feedback loop that could accelerate global warming,” a decidedly negative configuration. (Methane Leaks Multiplying Beneath Antarctic Ocean Spark Fears of Climate Doom Loop, LiveScience d/d Oct. 15, 2025)
And more forewarnings: Polar scientists have been warning, with more fervor than ever before, of a rapidly deteriorating Antarctica, especially since 2024. Their warnings via press releases address the public at large; as politicians, especially Americans, care less. Major warnings by scientists since 2024: (1) August 2024 the 11th Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research attended by 1,500 scientists: Gino Casassa, glaciologist head of Chilean Antarctic Institute claimed: “Based upon current trends, sea levels will be up 13’ by 21oo.” This is the first time a high-level scientist has made such an alarming forecast. (2) November 2024, 450 polar scientists called an emergency meeting in Australia to make a public announcement: “If we don’t act, and quickly, the melting of Antarctica ice could cause catastrophic sea level rise around the globe within our lifetimes.” This is the first time polar scientists have predicted ‘catastrophic sea level rise with our lifetimes.’ (3) A February 2025 study in Nature: Worldwide Glacier Meltdown Underway, a 20-year study by 35 international teams identified terrestrial glacier losses that are larger than Greenland and Antarctica but not found in scientific models of sea level rise, yet described “staggering loses” of terrestrial glacier systems.
The West Antarctic downturn over the past decade was not predicted by climate models. This means the decline is especially concerning and suggest things may be unfolding faster than scientific models can capture.
Accordingly, that matters a lot because sea ice reflects sunlight back into space, one of the planet’s major albedo (reflective) sources that helps keep the climate system stable and it helps drive ocean currents that lock away heat and carbon deep underwater. This sudden change will bring serious far-reaching consequences for the climate system and for Antarctica’s ecosystems, already starting to show the impact.
Why should anybody care if Antarctic sea ice does not refreeze? Most people will surely shake it off as one more issue not to worry about today. And that is understandable. But when the dashboard of their cars blink red, they freak out, gotta find a service station immediately or the engine might freeze-up, who knows what’s going on?
In similar fashion, Antarctica is the planet’s dashboard flashing red, nonstop.
The failure of the nations of the world to cut CO2 emissions, as agreed by 195 countries at Paris 2015, cannot be talked about enough. Only a couple of countries, out of 195 signatories, are tracking Paris 2015 commitments to cut CO2 emissions by 2030. They agreed to cut CO2 emissions by 2030 via Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the core climate action plans submitted by countries under the 2015 Paris Agreement. They collectively (to a person, 195 delegates) recognized excessive fossil fuel emissions as an existential risk to society in 2015. That remains but it’s much worse now with global heat thriving like never before on record-setting CO2 emissions.
Where are they?
