So…that war in Iran might be over.
It lasted just under eighteen weeks, most of which was spent in ‘ceasefire’, involved no ground troops and achieved nothing but soaring prices and (both sides) closing the Strait of Hormuz.
And now it’s over.
Maybe.
There’s a “tentative” deal in place.
It sort of feels like when a TV show “kills off” a character, but makes sure you never see the body just in case they want to bring them back later.
The terms of the deal, due to be officially signed on Friday, are not yet entirely public. Both sides are, naturally, pitching the result as a victory.
Reuters reports the deal includes a $300 billion fund financed by corporations in the US and a handful of Gulf states, but that this “is not a reconstruction or reparations programme and will not include any government money”.
Rather it is…
designed to trigger investment into Iran [and] to give both sides an economic incentive to conclude a final deal to end the war
For those keeping score, that’s just over 2.7 billion dollars per DAY of the war. Not a bad pay out.
The Telegraph reports that this fund is only available should Iran give up its uranium stockpile, but that they will be able to restart oil sales immediately.
Perhaps most importantly, Israel is not party to this deal, and yet Israeli forces pulling out of Lebanon is apparently part of the agreement…according to Iran, anyway. From the AP:
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Israel’s continued occupation of southern Lebanon would violate the deal.
“Without the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the territories they occupied during this war, the war has not fully come to an end,” Araghchi said.
A U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss outlines of the agreement, has said the deal does not call for an Israeli withdrawal. And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that Israel would remain in Lebanon “as long as necessary.”
Good old Bibi Netanyahu has already ruled out giving up the occupied parts of Lebanon. This rather sets up that, should the deal fail, it will be Israel’s fault, doesn’t it?
And what about the Strait of Hormuz?
Well, that might take weeks to reopen. And oil and gas prices aren’t going to return to pre-war levels for months.
But what do you think?
- Will the deal hold?
- Will Iran give up its uranium?
- Will Israel pull out of Lebanon?
- Will they restart the war again later?
- Who has “won”?
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