How long will it take for America’s Jewish population to begin politically realigning? Israel is the sticking point: It has stuck America’s Jewish population between Democrats’ increasing opposition to Israel and American Jews’ historical support for Democrats. This divergence of reality from legacy has real implications for American politics.
America’s Jewish population has long been a stalwart supporter of the Democrat Party. The 2024 presidential election was no exception. CNN’s exit polling found that 78% of Jewish voters supported Kamala Harris; only 22% voted for Donald Trump. The Jewish partisan split was greater than that for any other religious group and rivaled that of blacks (86%) as one of Democrats’ strongest supporters.
Beyond votes, America’s Jewish community makes substantial political contributions. According to a 2018 article in the Jerusalem Post, America’s Jewish population contributes up to 50% of the Democrat Party’s funding (versus 25% of the Republican Party’s).
Yet for all this outsized support, Democrats are increasingly not reciprocating – especially when it comes to Israel. A recent survey by Pew Research found “eight-in-ten Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents currently have an unfavorable view of Israel.” The contrast is astounding: While 78% of America’s Jewish community voted for Democratic candidates in 2024, 80% of Democrats view Israel unfavorably.
What’s worse, the view of Israel among Democrats is deteriorating rapidly: In 2022, a year before Hamas’ heinous October 7 terrorist attack, 53% held an unfavorable view of Israel. By last year, it was 69%. The voicing of this view is also becoming more strident. Recently, former-MSNBC commentator Joy Reid stated about the Democrat Party’s relationship with Israel: “I, going forward, cannot vote for a Democrat who does not pledge to end this relationship.”
This Democratic animosity to Israel has also increasingly bled over to America’s Jewish community. On left-dominated college campuses, antisemitic incidents rose from 179 in 2019-20 to 2,334 in 2024-25. At the individual level, New York Rep. Dan Goldman was recently told not to return to a Brooklyn coffee shop because of his support for Israel; on Tuesday, he lost badly in the Democratic primary to a Mamdani-backed acolyte. What did the race center on? Reported CBS News: “The issue at the center of this race was the United States’ relationship with Israel.”
For an electoral group that punches above its weight for the Democrat Party, Israel and American Jews have become a punching bag for Democrats. Considering this growing party animosity, how would another Democratic administration respond to Israel? (In 2024, the Biden administration reportedly withheld weapons to Israel.)
If, instead of being taken for granted, American Jews took a hike on Democrats, it could have a major impact on U.S. politics. Aside from donations, look at New York and New Jersey. Although just 2% of America’s population, Jewish voters’ concentration in both would be significant if it shifted.
Donald Trump lost New York by 12.6 percentage points in 2024 and roughly 1 million votes; he lost NYC 30.45%-67.7% and by almost 900,000 votes. In 2023, in the eight-county area around NYC there were 1.372 million Jewish people and 1.672 million statewide. Trump lost New Jersey 45.9%-51.8% and about 250,000 votes. In New Jersey, there are 581,200 Jewish people.
New York has 28 electoral votes; New Jersey has 14. Swept in all 2024’s seven swing states, Democrats lost the presidency 226-312. To get to the magic 270 needed to win, they need to gain 42 electoral votes. The prospect of losing 42 more would make Democrats’ task essentially impossible: They have no path to presidential victory without New York and New Jersey.
Of course, this doesn’t mean that all of the Jewish population are voters or that they would immediately become Republicans. But even a decision to “sit this one out” could make both New York and New Jersey competitive (or at least more so). It would send a powerful warning shot across the Democratic Party’s bow that they cannot take the Jewish vote for granted.
At least as measured by support for Israel, Jewish political clout is being wasted in the Democrat Party. Israel is losing ground, even as Democrats are winning elections with overwhelming Jewish support.
And some of the Democrats with whom Israel is losing ground come from within their own community. Following his Tuesday primary win, Brad Lander, the Democrat who defeated incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NY), said: “I will be one of the Jewish members of Congress most willing to stand up for Palestinian human rights.” Among the leading advocates for restricting arms sales to Israel is Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), who is Jewish. In April, he stated in his attempt to curtail $500 million in arms sales to Israel: “U.S. taxpayers have spent tens of billions of dollars in support of the racist, extremist Netanyahu government. Enough is enough. The United States must use the leverage we have – tens of billions in arms and military aid – to demand that Israel ends these atrocities.” They are not alone: Polling shows that within the Jewish community, only 64% view Israel positively.
They are getting less than nothing for their continued support, because Democrats are not simply ignoring Israel, they are vilifying it and, increasingly, those who support it. This vilification is now threatening to move toward tangible actions like restricting or ending weapon sales entirely.
Israel is ringed with enemies in the Middle East. It is regularly assailed with “Death to Israel” chants and terrorist attacks meant to bring rhetoric to reality. Leaving Israel defenseless or forcing it to defend itself without U.S. weapons, which have proven so effective in regional conflicts, approaches being an existential threat.
Regarding Israel, America’s Jewish population is far more closely aligned with Republicans. The question for America’s Jewish community is when will its political support begin reflecting reality? By not doing so, they are implicitly giving their political clout to Democrats and members of their own community actively opposing Israel.
