One thing is certain. The U.S. lost its war of choice against Iran. Trump and Netanyahu failed to eliminate the perceived Iranian nuclear threat, despite relentless bombing that killed thousands and destroyed both military assets and civilian infrastructure. The desired “regime change” left a more hawkish leader in charge. Iranian forces then deployed missiles and drones to carry out devastating attacks on American bases in the Gulf. Thirteen U.S. soldiers lost their lives. Most significantly, Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz sparked global panic in energy, fertilizer, and other vital markets. For Americans, the war meant a dollar a-gallon increase at the gas pump. For Trump, ending the war became a political imperative.
The June 17 Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has drawn sharp criticism, even from some right-wing members of Congress. Republican Senator Bill Cassidy described the agreement as the “worst foreign policy blunder in decades.” Others opined that its sanctions relief could allow a weakened Iran to rebuild its military; or they faulted the MOU for not banning Iran from extending its control over an international waterway. Yet the critics don’t say what they probably know: that a lost war rarely gives the losing party a good deal.
If the just-signed MOU maintains the 60-day ceasefire and becomes a full-fledged agreement, America’s benefits could ultimately outweigh what it loses. The possible gains are three: an end to a costly war, a downscaling of U.S. relations with Israel, and a modest retreat from American imperialism.
1. War. The MOU pauses military action for 60 days. This stops (at least for now) America’s daily cash expenditures on the war–estimated by various sources at between $800 million to $1 billion. According to a U.S.-based rights group (HRANA), 3,636 Iranians (including 1,701 civilians have been killed during the war. The MOU will save lives on both sides. Since Iranian (and U.S.) closures of the Strait blocked international commerce, opening up fertilizer and other agricultural commodity transport will allow farmers in Asia to grow their crops and avoid a deadly famine. Primary objectives of the envisioned agreement will be to guarantee an open Strait of Hormuz and eliminate Iran’s nuclear capacity for making bombs. Those achievements would be a big win for the entire globe.
2. Israel. For more than six decades the U.S. has provided Israel with substantial military aid, making it the largest cumulative recipient of U.S. foreign assistance. A 2019 MOU is providing Israel $38 billion over ten years ($33 billion in military aid and $5 billion for missile defense). A major justification for such aid is to give Israel a “Qualitative Military Edge” (QME) over potential adversaries in the region. The Netanyahu regime has relied on U.S.-supplied weapons for its genocide in Gaza and its ongoing war on Lebanon. The MOU requires Israel to cease its attacks on Lebanon and to withdraw the IDF from Southern Lebanon. Those requirements will be a major first obstacle to securing peace. At this writing, Israel has apparently agreed to another ceasefire but has refused to end its occupation. Will Trump convince Netanyahu to relent on Lebanon so that the MOU discussions proceed? Or will the Israel lobby in the U.S. force Trump’s hand, causing the MOU to fail and the shooting war to resume?
3. Imperialism. America’s status as a superpower in the Middle East has been thrown into question by the war. With its drones and missiles, Iran managed to attack all thirteen U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf. While we don’t know the full extent of the damage, it seems clear that each of the bases was made inoperable and that U.S. soldiers were killed or wounded in the attacks. U.S. allies in the region assumed that the American presence would bring safety and security. Instead, they discovered that the bases had become targets, not only on the U.S. bases, but also on their national energy infrastructure. If such attacks cause Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait to cease their hosting of U.S. bases, America will have lost its superpower role in the Middle East. Not only that. Other countries around the world now question America’s so-called leadership of the free world. U.S. imperialism may now be in retreat. The billions of dollars the U.S. needs to start or sustain a Middle East war could then be spent on domestic needs, such as health and education.
The Iran MOU and agreement if achieved could turn a short-term loss into long-term gain. A peaceful end to the war on Iran would not only save lives and avoid more costly destruction, but it could also cause Gulf countries to shift away from total reliance on U.S.-backed military solutions. If the MOU and agreement cause American policymakers to reassess their too-tight relationship with Israel, that would be good for both countries. The era of “QME” should end. The times require diplomacy, not more war. Lastly, the war with Iran should cause us to abandon imperialistic ambitions and accept the notion of a multilateral world.
