Larry Johnson tells Glenn Diesen that the conflict in Ukraine has entered a dangerous new phase, arguing Moscow increasingly views NATO as a direct participant rather than a distant backer—and warning that the margin for diplomacy is rapidly disappearing.
Joshua Scheer
Has the war in Ukraine reached a point where Russia no longer sees itself as fighting only Ukraine?
In a wide-ranging conversation with Glenn Diesen, former CIA analyst and former State Department counterterrorism official Larry Johnson argues that NATO’s growing involvement—from intelligence support to long-range weapons—has fundamentally changed Moscow’s calculations. Johnson contends that Russia increasingly views Western governments as direct participants in the conflict, raising the risk that future retaliation could extend beyond Ukraine itself.
The discussion explores President Vladimir Putin’s latest warnings to the West, the possibility of further military escalation, Europe’s strategic calculations, the role of energy and economic pressures, and whether diplomatic opportunities that once existed have largely disappeared. Throughout the interview, Johnson presents his assessment that the conflict has entered a far more dangerous phase, while Diesen questions whether European leaders fully appreciate the consequences of continued escalation.
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson says the war between Russia and Ukraine is approaching a critical turning point, arguing that Moscow increasingly views NATO not simply as Ukraine’s supporter, but as an active participant in the conflict.
Speaking with political scientist Glenn Diesen, Johnson said Russia believes Western intelligence, surveillance systems, targeting assistance and advanced weapons have blurred the distinction between Ukrainian and NATO military operations. In his view, this has significantly increased the risk that Russia could eventually retaliate against countries supplying military support rather than limiting its response to Ukraine.
Johnson pointed to recent statements from Russian officials—including President Vladimir Putin—as evidence that Moscow believes diplomacy with the West has largely failed. He argued that Russian leaders increasingly believe Western governments are preparing for a longer-term confrontation rather than seeking a negotiated settlement.
The interview also examined Putin’s recent references to Nazi Germany’s 1941 invasion of the Soviet Union. Johnson interpreted those remarks as a warning that Russia believes it must prepare for what it sees as a direct military threat rather than assume negotiations will prevent one.
Diesen questioned what strategic objective European governments believe they are pursuing through continued military support for Ukraine. Throughout the discussion, both speakers argued that Europe’s military capabilities and economic position may not match the increasingly confrontational rhetoric coming from some Western leaders.
Another major theme was the economic impact of the broader geopolitical conflict. Johnson argued that Europe remains vulnerable to energy disruptions and warned that continued instability could deepen economic pressures across the continent. He also discussed the emergence of alternative financial and geopolitical institutions led by countries including China and Russia, suggesting these developments reflect a changing global balance of power.
Johnson further claimed that Russia’s domestic political climate is shifting toward stronger military responses as the war continues, although he argued President Putin has so far acted more cautiously than some Russian hardliners would prefer.
The conversation concluded with Johnson asserting that the greatest danger lies in miscalculation. He warned that if Russia ultimately concludes NATO countries have become direct combatants, future escalation could move beyond Ukraine in ways that neither side intends.
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