Days before the MoU signing, three Middle Eastern military chiefs met Pakistan’s powerful field marshal, Gen. Asim Munir, further deepening ties between South Asia and the Middle East.
Kathy Gannon Substack
Driven by the war in Iran, the Middle East and South Asia—both deeply volatile regions—are becoming increasingly intertwined, a reality underscored by the recent visits of three Middle Eastern generals to Pakistan.
It’s curious that within one week and just days before the Iran/U.S. Memorandum of Understanding was announced, three Middle Eastern countries Lebanon, Bahrain and Turkey sent their military chiefs to Pakistan to meet the country’s powerful Field Marshal, Asim Munir.
Pakistan’s Field Marshal was the point person on the negotiations with Iran that led to the first cease fire in April and the latest MoU. He is now in Switzerland, along with Qatar, for the first round of US./Iranian talks presumably to help keep the two sides at the table.
Since last week’s MoU signing, Pakistan has been basking in the glory of a memorandum, named for the Pakistani capital, Islamabad.
In today’s world, where leaders have shown zero skill at diplomacy, (see U.S. President Donald Trump’s demeaning comments about Italian Prime Minister Meloni) Pakistan deserves a mountain of credit for walking a wobbly tightrope balancing and capitalizing on its many relationships, including with China, most Middle Eastern countries and the United States, to get to this new MoU, along with Qatar’s assistance. The MoU effectively pauses the war for 60 days, during which time tough talks will be held between Tehran and Washington.
Still, it is curious and certainly more than coincidental that in the immediate days leading up to this MoU three key Middle Eastern countries would send their senior military brass to Pakistan.
It has to be asked: Why? And why now?
The first uniform through the door of Pakistan’s army headquarters was Lebanese Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Gen, Rodolphe Haykal, probably the most significant of the military visitors, given Iran’s insistence that Lebanon is included in the final peace deal, if one should be reached.
Gen. Haykal was followed by the Commander of the Bahrain National Guard, General Shaikh Mohammad Bin Isa Bin Salman Al Khalifa, and lastly Turkey’s General Metin Tokel, Commander of the Turkish Land Forces.
The army’s public relations department has been vague about the content of the talks, or the results, if any, but it did say Pakistan’s Field Marshal Gen. Munir spoke of greater military cooperation, training and sharing of technology with both Lebanon and Bahrain. Regional security, and presumably how to ensure that security following any peace deal, featured large in the Field Marshal’s meetings with all three.
Given Lebanon’s place of prominence in the MoU and its military’s lack of capability and capacity to either disarm Hezbollah or defend its borders, the visit of its commander-in-chief seems the most significant, particularly since it has been more than two decades since a Lebanese military commander has visited Pakistan.
It certainly begs the question: Why now?
In the MoU, Iran has put an end to fighting in Lebanon and the larger region at Number One on the 14- point MoU list.
Making headway on that thorny issue seems a heavy lift, particularly as Israel is not party to the MoU and continues to attack Lebanon, as if to give the proverbial finger to the MoU and its signatories, the U.S. and Iran. Trump and his vice-president have not taken Israel’s defiance well, though neither are seeking a rupture in the relationship.
Meanwhile, in Lebanon the Lebanese Defense Force (LAF) is too weak to either protect Lebanon or disarm Hezbollah, also a key provision of the MoU, which brings us back to Lebanese Gen. Haykal’s rare and suspiciously timed visit to Pakistan.
In a brief readout on the meeting, Pakistan’s public relations wing said discussions covered training, military cooperation and sharing of technology suggesting Pakistan may be positioning itself even deeper into the Middle East.
Pakistan’s Field Marshal Munir has in the last one year leveraged Pakistan’s military capabilities to build and strengthen a network of defense partnerships across the Middle East.
Its strongest defense relationship is with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan’s oldest and closest ally in the region. But, Pakistan also cooperates militarily with other Middle Eastern countries, that may possess expensive equipment, but lack Pakistan’s level of military capability.
Pakistan’s military capability is formidable. It is a nuclear armed power, the only one among Muslim-dominated countries. Already, a lengthy list of countries send their military personnel to Pakistan for training.
Saudi officers have long trained in Pakistan, as have Sri Lankan military personnel, particularly around counterinsurgency experience. Nigeria’s military leadership said more than 2,000 of its personnel were trained in Pakistani institutions and the list goes on: Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Yemen, Iraq, Turkmenistan, Libya and more.
Pakistan’s army also ranks in the top 15 in the world.
What is interesting is that until now the contact and relationship between Pakistan’s and Lebanon’s militaries has been less than insignificant, again begging the question: Why here? Why Now?
The meetings point to a potentially significant shift in Pakistan’s regional outreach, particularly if Islamabad is exploring support for Lebanon’s severely under-resourced armed forces or, more likely, if Beirut is actively seeking such backing. Any move in that direction would carry strategic implications beyond bilateral ties, most significantly provoking Israel and adding another layer to the growing overlap between South Asian and Middle Eastern security dynamics.
The weakness of Lebanon’s Armed Forces is often seen as a direct result of what is known as Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge (QME). This is a long-standing U.S. policy that seeks to ensure Israel maintains superior military capabilities relative to its neighboring states.
In the past, attempts by Lebanon to buy military equipment from Russia was thwarted and Lebanon previously declined Chinese assistance fearing it would anger the United States.
While the Pakistan military has said little about its discussions with Lebanon’s Gen. Haykal, it did issue a statement promising to expand “defense collaboration with the Lebanese Armed Forces,” without specifying what that collaboration might look like.
Pakistan’s military capability would suggest it has much to offer, but greater and closer security cooperation with Middle Eastern states comes with its own set of risks for Pakistan and the wider South Asian region.
An expanding network of defense pacts and partnerships between Pakistan and Middle Eastern nations would likely strengthen those countries militarily and provoke Israel, which was reportedly displeased by Pakistan’s Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement with Saudi Arabia, says Imtiaz Gul, executive director of the Islamabad-based Center for Strategic Studies.
Pakistan “drew considerable flak for the pact with Saudia, essentially an extension of Pakistan’s military presence there for decades,” said Gul.
Yet Israel is not without its own security partnerships in South Asia having enhanced its defense cooperation with India, Pakistan’s longtime enemy and neighbor, against whom Pakistan has fought three wars and numerous smaller, but potentially deadlier conflicts.
Like Pakistan, neighbor India is also a nuclear armed country and while the Middle East may appear to be a minefield, South Asia is no less volatile, and potentially more dangerous as the two regions become substantively more interconnected.
In February this year, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi travelled to Israel where the two countries announced a major expansion of relations, elevating ties to a “Special Strategic Partnership for Peace, Innovation and Prosperity.”
They signed several agreements including a promise to expand defense-industrial cooperation .
The Israel-India defense agreements most likely to concern Pakistan center on air defense, including the Barak 8 missile system, advanced radar networks, and intelligence and surveillance cooperation involving armed drones, unmanned aerial vehicles, and satellite sharing.
Counterterrorism also figured prominently in the agreements. At the close of the visit, Modi and Netanyahu described it as a shared scourge and agreed to deepen cooperation on intelligence sharing, urban warfare, and border surveillance—a development likely to concern Pakistan, and potentially China, given New Delhi’s border dispute with Beijing.
The war in Iran may have deepened military ties between the Middle East and South Asia, but its unintended consequences could perhaps deepen instability, rather than deliver peace.
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