CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten unpacks some polling data on how young people feel about the economy, specifically the incredible drop in economic confidence and support for President Trump and Republicans in general among young men:
So what are we talking about here? In terms of the American dream, it is literally the ability to buy a home. Young people don’t have a lot of hope when it comes to buying a home, and these numbers have changed tremendously.
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Adults under the age of 35 — age 18 to 34 — who expect to buy a home in the next five years:
– 53%, back in 2016, a majority in Gallup surveys said they would buy a home in the next five years, among those who didn’t already own one.
– 29% now in 2026.
That number has fallen through the floor. That is nearly half the level, dropped by nearly half in just under a decade.
No wonder young people are feeling so much frustration now. Of course, in terms of what young people want, what Americans want in order to fulfill the American dream, well, it’s not just buying a home. It’s a good job. You go leave the home, you have a good job. But young people at this point don’t believe it’s a good time to actually find a job.
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Age 15 to 34 who say it’s a good time to find a job:
– 43%. Less than half, less than half of young people say it’s a good time to find a job. And look at this trend line. This trend line is going completely in the wrong direction.
– 75% four years ago. That’s a drop of over 30 points in just four years’ time.
– 77% in 2019, back when Donald Trump was at the end of his first term in office.
That’s a drop of 34 percentage points from where Donald Trump was in term number one, in terms of young folks saying it’s a good time to find a job.
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And young men in particular, those who powered Donald Trump to victory, well, they are feeling a lot of frustration with the economy. Not a big surprise when they say it’s hard to find a job and say, in fact, their aim to buy a home has fallen below 50%.
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The young men who powered Trump to victory, men under 30, on economic conditions before Trump came into office:
– 66% said economic conditions were poor in 2024 and early 2025, before Trump was inaugurated for a second term.
They were hoping that Trump would solve it, but they view the economic conditions even worse today than just before Trump got in office. Look at that:
– 79% this year of young men, those under the age of 30, say the economic conditions are poor.
The good percentage, it was 34%. It was just one in three. But now it’s just one in five: 21% say economic conditions are good. And you know who they’re taking their frustrations out on? The man at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. That’s who.
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Look at how they view Donald Trump on the economy.
– Men under 30, in the fall of 2024, Trump was more trusted on the economy than Harris by a seven-point margin.
– Now, net approval among young men for Donald Trump on the economy: -59 points.
Do the math with me right here — a drop of 66 points in less than two years’ time, just a year and a half, in terms of feeling towards Trump and the economy among young men.
Put that together with the economy being the number one issue.
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How do they feel about Donald Trump overall?
– Men under 30, Donald Trump won that vote by one point in 2024. He was the first Republican nominee to win young men this entire century.
– His net approval rating among young men now is -55 points.
That’s a switcheroo of what, 56 points? In just a year and a half.
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Now, of course, it’s not just the economy that is changing the views of young people on Donald Trump. Of course, it’s foreign policy. Because remember, Trump said, “I’ll keep us out of foreign wars.” And what’s been going on the last few months? Well, the war in Iran. Young men don’t like it one iota.
Trump and foreign policy, okay:
– Young men trusted Donald Trump over Kamala Harris by nine points in the fall of 2024, men under 30 on Trump and foreign policy.
– 54 points underwater today, his net approval among them on foereihn policy.
Again, this is a switcheroo of, what, 63 points in just a year and a half?
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And of course, everything that flows from the presidency — Trump is not on the ballot this fall, but it all flows downhill to those members of Congress, those Republican members of Congress. If they think they’re going to escape the wrath of young men and the regret that they have for voting for Donald Trump, well, they’ve got another thing coming. Take a look at young men and the midterms.
Men under 30 on the midterm elections:
– Democrats were favored by three points in November 2024. Democrats did slightly better than Kamala Harris, but not really.
– Now, Democrats are favored by 28 points, in the average polling right now, in the 2026 race for Congress.
When it comes to the race for Congress, young men overwhelmingly favoring Democrats. That is a 25-point switcheroo, a 25-point switcheroo, and again, just a year and a half worth of time.
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But what about 2028? Because we’re going to have presidential primaries starting in the beginning of 2028. Those folks are going to start running very quickly once the midterm elections wrap up.
Well, for the two Republican frontrunners — the net approval among men under 30 for 2028:
– JD Vance: 48 points underwater, being the vice president.
– Marco Rubio: 39 points underwater. The secretary of state is doing a little bit better, but not much.
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So the deficit that Trump is facing now among young men, that is transferring over to the Cabinet members as well. And that is so important. That is so important because these two men on your screen are the two leading candidates for the Republican Party.
And I bet that they, dare I say — to borrow a word from earlier — are feeling some regret for how younger men are now feeling regret for Donald Trump.
So the bottom line is this: Young men — historic performance for Trump back in 2024. But now they have historically shifted well away from Donald Trump and the potential 2028 nominees, as well as those Republicans running for Congress in 2026 later this year.
