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Josh Scheer
As Donald Trump meets Xi Jinping in Beijing, the world’s two largest powers attempt to choreograph stability atop a decade of escalating economic warfare, military brinkmanship, and mutual distrust. Xu Qinduo — journalist, analyst, and host of Dialogue on CGTN — cuts through the theatrics to explain what’s actually at stake: the future of global trade, the limits of U.S. containment strategy, and whether Washington and Beijing can escape the Thucydides Trap they now openly acknowledge. In a rare moment of candor, Xi warns Trump that Taiwan remains “the most important issue” and mishandling it could “jeopardize the entire China–U.S. relationship.” Against this backdrop, Xu lays out the hard realities: China’s rise is irreversible, the U.S. economic war has failed to halt it, and both sides must decide whether they intend to coexist — or collide.
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Highlights
A surprisingly warm opening — but with hard edges beneath it Xu describes a “very positive” atmosphere: ceremonial guards, the Temple of Heaven, and a state banquet where both leaders emphasized shared values and centuries of contact.
Xi and Trump agree on a new framework: “constructive strategic stability” Both sides endorse a vision meant to guide relations for the next several years — a notable shift after years of tariff wars, tech bans, and military tension.
China signals: the Thucydides Trap is real — and must be avoided Xi explicitly frames the U.S.–China rivalry as a historic test of whether rising and established powers can avoid war.
Economic war: the U.S. failed to halt China’s rise Xu is blunt: tariffs didn’t work, export controls didn’t stop China’s tech development, and China diversified its markets faster than Washington expected.
China’s message: trade is mutually beneficial — stop treating it as zero‑sum Xu argues that deficits aren’t “suffering,” and that both sides gain from trade unless ideology gets in the way.
Energy geopolitics: China refuses to be cornered Beijing has deliberately diversified oil and gas imports — Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Ghana — keeping reliance on any single source under 20%. Meanwhile, China accelerates renewables, nuclear, and EV infrastructure to reduce vulnerability to U.S. pressure.
Taiwan: Xi delivers his strongest warning yet Xu says Xi told Trump directly that Taiwan is the “reddest of the red lines,” and mishandling it could endanger the entire bilateral relationship.
U.S. incrementalism has hollowed out the One China policy Xu cites U.S. military personnel in Taiwan, expanded arms sales, and political engagement as violations of the 1982 communiqué — which promised arms sales would decline to zero.
China’s view: U.S. actions embolden secessionists and destabilize the region Xu stresses that Washington’s weapons packages and political signaling encourage separatist forces, raising the risk of conflict.
The core question: coexistence or confrontation? Xu frames the moment as a crossroads — whether the two powers can build a model of peaceful coexistence or remain trapped in suspicion and rivalry.
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