Currently, Democrats hold the inside track for the House and the outside track for the Senate. In horse racing and politics, where you’re running matters; however, it’s no guarantee of where you’ll finish.
If there is anything that approaches being a “sure thing” in American politics, it’s that the president’s party loses congressional seats in midterm elections. Since 1926, there have been only three midterms where the president’s party did not lose seats in the House and Senate. With Bush in 2006 and Obama in 2014, the most recent administrations that faced second midterms, the president’s party lost an average of 22 House and eight Senate seats.
This historical precedent would seemingly make Republican seat losses a certainty. And losses equaling the average of the last two second-term administrations would mean Republicans would lose both the House and Senate.
President Trump’s polling does little to mitigate the historical precedent: According to Real Clear Politics’ May 5 (six months from November’s midterms) average of national polling, Trump’s job approval rating was a negative 16.2 percentage points (40.4-56.6%), his favorability was similar (41.1-55.6%), the direction of the country (34.3-61.3%), and Democrats led on generic ballot polling (48.4-42.8%).
So, the midterms are already decided, right? Not so fast. There’s still a lot of running to do in this race and several factors to consider.
Trump’s May 5 job approval rating (40.4%) was closer to Obama’s (43.8%) than to Bush’s (35.8%) at the same point in their second terms. Obama lost only 13 House seats in 2014, versus Bush’s 30. Also, Trump’s job approval rating in likely-voter polling (people most likely to vote) was a negative 10 percentage points – not great, but better than his overall -16.2 percentage points.
Looking at the track ahead, the outcome of mid-decade redistricting efforts by both parties looms large. Before Florida’s recent change to their maps, Democrats looked to have a one-seat advantage in the process. However, the four seats that Democrats’ map appeared to have netted them in Virginia were just overturned by the state’s supreme court. On the Republican side, Florida’s redrawn map looks to have netted Republicans four seats; however, it too faces court challenges.
And all this redistricting chaos was occurring before the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling (Louisiana v. Callais) that Louisiana’s current congressional map constituted an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. This ruling’s effect opens districts constructed to give minorities a majority of voters (so-called “majority-minority” districts) to being redrawn.
The great majority of majority-minority districts vote Democratic; while not all such districts will be redrawn (e.g., those in Democrat-dominated states), those in Republican-dominated states could be ahead of November – already Alabama and Tennessee are moving to act on the Supreme Court’s decision. While still too early to estimate, any seats Republicans redistrict in their favor (Politico earlier estimated this could allow Republicans to gain up to 19 seats) will cut into Democrats’ expected November House gains.
Also to consider is whether President Trump is at a political nadir because of the Iranian conflict. The day before the U.S.-Israeli Feb. 28 strike that killed Iran’s supreme leader, Trump’s net job approval rating was -12.2 percentage points. Again, not great but significantly better than currently – it was also better than either Obama’s or Bush’s at the same point in their presidencies. If the current conflict is resolved before November, could this give Trump and Republicans a rebound effect – especially if publicly perceived to be resolved favorably for the U.S.?
Similar questions pertain to the economy and gas prices. Also, are there other issues that could sway national opinion? For example, a pending Supreme Court ruling upholding states’ ability to bar biological males from competing in female sports could spur a Democratic response, and some Democrats believe the party’s positioning on transgender issues contributed to Kamala Harris’ 2024 defeat. A potent single issue could be a nationwide target for President Trump’s huge campaign war chest – estimated at anywhere from $300 million to $1 billion.
Six months from November, the historical odds favor Democrats capturing the handful of seats they need to win the House. The Senate isn’t so clear. Yes, historical precedent predicts Democrats winning seats, but in Senate midterms only one-third of seats are up for reelection. Democrats need to gain four seats to win a majority. To get those, they must flip three states Trump won in 2024 and hold seats in two states (Georgia and Michigan) Trump won in 2024. That’s a tall order.
As in horse racing, so in politics: Holding the inside track is important. Democrats hold it in the House race, Republicans in the Senate race. Also in horse racing, as in politics: It’s all about the finishing, not the running, and there’s still a long way to the finish line.
