The CIA provided an assessment to the White House that Iran would be able to hold out against the US blockade for months before suffering more severe economic hardships. President Donald Trump has claimed that the blockade will force Tehran to comply with his demands.
Four people familiar with the assessment told The Washington Post that the CIA believes Iran can withstand the US blockade for three to four months before economic conditions get significantly worse.
One US official told The Washington Post they believe Iran could withstand the US blockade for years. “The leadership has gotten more radical, determined, and increasingly confident they can outlast US political will and sustain domestic repression to check any resistance” inside Iran, the official said. “Comparatively, you see similar regimes lasting years under sustained embargoes and airpower-only wars.”
Trump imposed a blockade on Iranian ports last month. He announced the blockade shortly after Tehran reopened the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, paying tolls to Iran. Tehran responded to the blockade by reclosing the Strait.
The US has intercepted and stopped multiple commercial ships attempting to reach or leave Iranian ports. On Wednesday, an F-18 attacked and disabled an Iranian tanker in the Gulf of Oman.
While Trump has claimed the US Navy is a “wall of steel” stopping all Iranian tankers, ship tracking groups have found that dozens of Iranian ships have successfully broken through the blockade.
In recent weeks, Trump has told the American people that his blockade is strangling Iran, and Tehran will soon be forced to comply with his demands. However, a person familiar with the matter told The Washington Post that the situation in Iran is “nowhere near as dire as some have claimed.”
The CIA assessment also informed the President that Iran maintains 75% of its missile launchers and 70% of its missiles. A US official said that Iran would soon be able to restart its missile production.
